A step towards de-escalation at a critical time
In a significant development on the international stage, the United States announced an agreement with Russia to resume high-level military dialogue between the two countries. This announcement comes at a highly sensitive time, just hours after the expiration of the New START treaty, the last remaining agreement limiting the strategic nuclear arsenals of the two superpowers. The U.S. European Command confirmed in a statement that "maintaining dialogue between the two militaries is a critical factor in global stability and peace," noting that these channels provide a means to increase transparency, prevent miscalculations, and de-escalate crises.
Historical background: The end of the arms control era
The collapse of the New START treaty, signed in 2010 and extended in 2021, marks the end of a historic era of arms control agreements between Washington and Moscow that began during the Cold War. These treaties, along with SALT and START I, were cornerstones of global strategic stability, imposing verifiable limits on the number of nuclear warheads and their delivery systems. With the expiration of New START, the world has entered, for the first time in decades, a strategic vacuum, with no binding limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, raising serious concerns about a new, costly, and dangerous arms race.
The importance and potential effects of dialogue
The paramount importance of resuming military dialogue lies in its ability to manage risks in a deteriorating security environment, particularly given the escalating tensions stemming from the war in Ukraine. The absence of direct communication channels increases the likelihood of unintended incidents or misunderstandings that could escalate into a direct confrontation between the two nuclear powers. Internationally, this step is seen as a glimmer of hope that could pave the way for future negotiations on a new arms control framework. The success of this dialogue will not only serve the interests of both countries but will also help reassure US allies and the wider international community, who fear the repercussions of instability between the two powers. European leadership indicated that the agreement followed “fruitful and constructive progress” in side talks on peace in Ukraine, suggesting a link between the various diplomatic tracks.
