Recent US intelligence reports indicate that China is rapidly developing a new generation of nuclear weapons, a move that could alter the global balance of power and deeply concern Washington. The assessments suggest that Beijing is no longer content with its decades-long policy of “limited deterrence,” but is now striving to build the world’s most technologically advanced nuclear arsenal, representing a fundamental shift in its military strategy.
Strategic transformation and technological development
According to sources familiar with intelligence assessments, China conducted at least one covert, low-yield nuclear test in 2020. This test is believed to have been part of a broader effort to develop miniaturized and more sophisticated nuclear warheads. The goal is to enable Chinese ballistic missiles to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), thereby increasing their ability to penetrate enemy defense systems and strike multiple targets simultaneously with precision.
In addition, China is developing low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, a type of weapon Beijing has not previously produced. These weapons can be used on the battlefield against specific military targets without causing widespread destruction, raising concerns about their potential use in territorial conflicts, such as a possible scenario for the US defense of Taiwan.
Historical context of the Chinese nuclear program
China has possessed nuclear weapons since 1964 and has since adhered to a “no first use” doctrine, asserting that it will only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack against it. Its strategy has been based on maintaining a “minimum credible deterrent.” However, recent developments, including the construction of hundreds of new missile silos detected by satellites, suggest that this doctrine may be under review. This expansion is part of a comprehensive modernization of the People’s Liberation Army under President Xi Jinping, aimed at transforming it into a global military power by mid-century.
Importance and potential impacts
China’s nuclear expansion has serious regional and international implications. Internationally, it threatens to ignite a new three-way arms race between the United States, Russia, and China, undermining decades of arms control efforts. It also puts pressure on existing nuclear non-proliferation treaties.
Regionally, China’s acquisition of a more sophisticated and diversified nuclear arsenal significantly alters the security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region. It increases the anxiety of its neighbors, such as India and Japan, and may prompt them to bolster their own military capabilities. Most importantly, it complicates the calculations of any potential US military intervention in the Taiwan issue, raising the risk of escalation to a nuclear level.
