The United Kingdom has issued an urgent travel warning to its citizens, urging them to avoid travel to the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia, following renewed clashes and escalating tensions between local forces and the federal army. This warning reflects growing international concern that the fragile peace agreement that ended two years of devastating war could collapse, and that a new wave of violence could erupt in the vital Horn of Africa region.
Background of the conflict and roots of the tension
The current tensions are not a recent development, but rather the culmination of a complex and deeply rooted conflict. War broke out in November 2020 between the Ethiopian federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which had dominated Ethiopian politics for decades before Abiy came to power in 2018. The conflict escalated after the TPLF proceeded with regional elections that Addis Ababa deemed illegitimate, prompting a large-scale federal military intervention in the region. The two-year war saw the involvement of regional actors, most notably Eritrea and forces from the neighboring Amhara region, and resulted in a devastating humanitarian crisis.
The importance of the peace agreement and the challenges of its implementation
In November 2022, a landmark peace agreement was reached in Pretoria, South Africa, mediated by the African Union. The agreement stipulated a cessation of hostilities, the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, the withdrawal of foreign and non-federal troops from the region, and the restoration of federal authority. While the agreement halted widespread fighting and allowed humanitarian aid access, its implementation has faced significant challenges. Areas in western and southern Tigray, such as Tessemlet, which witnessed recent clashes, remain under the control of Amhara forces who claim sovereignty over them—a key point of contention that threatens to derail the entire peace process.
Local, regional and international impacts
Any return to conflict would have dire consequences at all levels. Locally, it would deepen the humanitarian crisis in the Tigray region, which has yet to recover from the effects of the previous war, where the African Union estimates that up to 600,000 people were killed, millions were displaced, and the population suffered from severe famine. Regionally, renewed fighting threatens to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa and could open the door to new external interventions, further complicating an already fragile security situation. Internationally, the British warning, along with the concerns of the United Nations, the African Union, and the European Union, reflects a loss of confidence in the parties' ability to commit to peace and increases diplomatic pressure on Abiy Ahmed's government to ensure the full implementation of the Pretoria Agreement and avoid a return to war.
