In an unprecedented escalation of tensions in the Western Hemisphere, US President Donald Trump a stark warning to the Cuban government, urging it to "reach an agreement" urgently before it's too late. This threat follows a dramatic shift in the Venezuelan landscape, marked by Washington's announcement of the capture of President Nicolás Maduro in a targeted military operation.
Political analyses indicate that Trump’s call is not so much diplomatic as it is a final warning to the Havana regime, which has just lost its most important strategic ally in the region.
The end of the "oil for security" alliance
To understand the depth of the crisis facing Cuba today, one must examine the historical background of the relationship between the two countries. Since the era of Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro, Cuba has relied almost entirely on subsidized Venezuelan oil and financial aid to keep its power plants running and its ailing economy afloat. In return, Havana provided Caracas with intelligence and security services, as well as medical personnel—what Trump, in a post on TruthSocial, described as providing "security services to the last two Venezuelan dictators."
The US president made it clear that this equation was over, saying: "Cuba will receive no more oil or money – nothing," adding in a firm tone: "I strongly suggest we reach an agreement before it is too late."
Hints of regime change in Havana
Trump didn't stop at economic threats; he went further by hinting at potential radical political changes. He retweeted a message suggesting that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, of Cuban descent, could be "the next president of Cuba," commenting, "Sounds good to me." This statement carries significant implications, as Rubio is one of the island's most vocal critics of the communist regime, and his appointment in this context sends a chilling message to the ruling elite in Havana.
Heavy security and economic losses
On the ground, Trump revealed details of the military operation that ousted Maduro , stating that "most of the Cubans" who were providing protection for the Venezuelan regime were killed during the US attack last week. He added that Venezuela "no longer needs protection from thugs and extortionists."
Cuba now faces what the US president has described as a "near-collapse" scenario, as the island already suffers from recurring energy crises and severe shortages of basic goods. Without Venezuelan support, and with the US tightening its grip, the Cuban leadership's options appear extremely limited: either submit to Washington's unstated demands, or face an economic and social collapse that could topple the decades-old regime.
