Former US President Donald Trump announced that contacts had been made with Iran, a statement reflecting the dual nature of his policy, which combined military threats with calls for dialogue. Trump's remarks came at a time when tensions between Washington and Tehran were reaching a peak, as he stated that "Iran is talking to us," while simultaneously emphasizing US military power by saying, "We have a large fleet heading there.".
Background to the tension: Withdrawal from the nuclear agreement
The roots of this escalation lie in the Trump administration’s decision in May 2018 to unilaterally withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), signed in 2015 between Iran and world powers. Following the withdrawal, Washington reimposed crippling economic sanctions on Tehran as part of a campaign it called “maximum pressure,” aimed at forcing Iran to renegotiate a new agreement that would address its missile program and regional policies.
Military escalation and back-channel diplomacy
In response to what Washington described as “troubling indications and warnings” from Iran, the United States bolstered its military presence in the Middle East. This reinforcement included deploying the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and a group of strategic bombers to the Gulf, in a clear message of deterrence. Trump’s remarks about a “great fleet” were a direct reference to these military moves, which have raised international concerns about the outbreak of an unintended military confrontation.
Despite the hostile rhetoric, intensive diplomatic efforts were underway behind the scenes. Several countries, including Switzerland (which represents US interests in Iran), Oman, and Japan, acted as intermediaries, relaying messages between the two sides and attempting to defuse the crisis. Trump’s remark that Iran was “talking to us” was likely a reference to these indirect channels, through which Washington sought to open a door to direct negotiations—something Tehran had been refusing under the sanctions.
Regional and international importance and influence
The tension between the United States and Iran has repercussions that extend far beyond their borders. The Arabian Gulf region, and especially the Strait of Hormuz, is a vital waterway for more than a fifth of the world's oil supply. Any military confrontation in this region would threaten the stability of global energy markets and lead to a dramatic increase in oil prices, negatively impacting the global economy. Furthermore, countries in the region, particularly US allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been following developments with great concern, fearing that their territories could become a battleground. Therefore, this crisis has presented a true test of international diplomacy and its ability to prevent a devastating regional war.
