Switzerland is preparing for a crucial referendum that could reshape its demographic and economic future and its relationship with the European Union, as Swiss voters head to the polls to vote on a controversial popular initiative aimed at capping the country's population growth at 10 million.
The initiative, titled “For Sustainable Development and Population Democracy (Sustainability Initiative),” was launched by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), which successfully gathered the necessary signatures to put it to a public vote under Switzerland’s unique system of direct democracy. The party argues that rapid population growth, which has increased by 70% since 1960 to reach approximately 9.1 million today, has placed enormous pressure on the country’s infrastructure, exacerbated the housing crisis, increased traffic congestion, and depleted natural resources.
Historical background and political context
This debate is not new to Swiss politics. In 2014, Switzerland narrowly voted in favor of another initiative launched by the Swiss People's Party, entitled "Against Mass Immigration," which called for quotas on migrants from the European Union. This decision sparked a diplomatic crisis with Brussels, as the free movement of people is a fundamental principle in the bilateral agreements linking Switzerland, a non-EU member, to the European single market. Ultimately, the Swiss government implemented the initiative in a watered-down form to avoid a complete breakdown in relations with the European Union.
The new initiative comes in the context of a strong economy, with Switzerland ranking as one of the world's wealthiest nations, boasting a GDP exceeding one trillion dollars and a per capita income of over 118,000 dollars annually. This prosperity, coupled with high wages and a high quality of life, has made it an attractive destination for skilled workers from across Europe and the world, directly contributing to its population growth.
Expected impacts at the local and international levels
If the initiative is approved, the government will be obligated to take strict measures to ensure that Switzerland's permanent population does not exceed 10 million before 2050. If this limit is exceeded, the government will have to terminate or renegotiate the free movement agreement with the European Union. Opponents of the initiative, including the federal government, parliament, and the majority of the business community, believe this step would be disastrous for the Swiss economy.
At the domestic level, economists warn that restricting access to skilled foreign labor will harm the competitiveness of Swiss companies, particularly in vital sectors such as pharmaceuticals, technology, and financial services, which rely heavily on international expertise. It will also lead to severe labor shortages in other sectors such as healthcare and construction.
At the regional and international levels, the greatest impact will be on Switzerland's relationship with the European Union, its largest trading partner. Bilateral agreements are linked by a "guillotine clause," meaning that the termination of one agreement (such as freedom of movement) could automatically trigger the collapse of the entire package, including access to the single market. This would isolate Switzerland economically and threaten its status as a global financial and commercial center. As the vote approaches, Swiss society is divided between concerns about preserving quality of life and national identity, and the imperatives of economic openness and integration into the European sphere.
