The National Center for Meteorology has released its periodic climate forecast report for the upcoming quarter, highlighting the expected weather conditions during the first quarter of 2026. This report includes a detailed analysis of January, February, and March, providing a climate roadmap relevant to all vital sectors and individuals in the Kingdom, as part of ongoing efforts to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasts and keep pace with global climate change.
The importance of the climate report and its general context
These seasonal reports are of paramount importance given the climate changes the region is experiencing. The proactive data assists stakeholders in urban planning, water resource management, and the agricultural sector, as well as enhancing the Civil Defense's preparedness to respond to heavy rainfall events. These forecasts are based on advanced climate simulation models that monitor the atmosphere and its interactions, reflecting the technological advancements in the Kingdom's meteorological sector.
Rainfall details for January 2026
According to the center's data, 2026 is expected to begin with a significant rainfall event, with forecasts indicating above-average ranging from heavy to very heavy, particularly concentrated in the northern and eastern regions, including:
- Northern Border Region.
- Al-Jawf region (excluding its western parts).
- Hail region (excluding the southern parts).
- West, central and parts of the eastern Medina region.
Meanwhile, rainfall rates remain around or slightly below normal levels in the rest of the Kingdom.
February forecast: Rainy conditions to continue
As February begins, the report anticipates rainfall to stabilize around its usual annual averages (moderate to heavy) in various geographical areas, including:
- Jazan region.
- The eastern parts of the Asir region.
- East of Mecca.
- South of the Riyadh region and south of the Eastern Province.
Features of the transitional weather in March
In March, which marks the beginning of the actual transition to spring, forecasts indicate rainfall around the normal average over wide areas, most notably Najran (except for the west), northeast of Mecca, and large parts of Medina and Tabuk, which bodes well for a good spring season for vegetation.
Rising temperatures: a phenomenon that deserves attention
In addition to rainfall, the report noted an important indicator related to temperatures, predicting that the first quarter of 2026 will see above-average across all regions of the Kingdom. This increase could reach approximately 1.0 degrees Celsius above normal in specific areas such as central and southern parts of the Eastern Province, eastern Najran, and Riyadh.
Experts confirm that this slight increase is in line with global climate patterns, and calls for continuous monitoring of the daily weather bulletins issued by the center to keep up with any immediate changes that may occur in the weather conditions.
