The National Center for Meteorology has released its comprehensive forecast report on climate predictions for the first quarter of 2026, covering the months of January, February, and March. This report is based on detailed analyses of global and regional climate model outputs, as well as statistical analysis of historical climate records for the Kingdom, reflecting the technological advancements in weather monitoring.
The importance of seasonal climate forecasts
These reports are of paramount strategic importance to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as they contribute to supporting sustainable development plans and water resource management, particularly in light of the Saudi Green Initiative. These forecasts help relevant authorities in the agriculture, water, and civil defense sectors enhance their preparedness to deal with heavy rainfall or heat waves, thereby reducing potential risks to lives and property and maximizing the utilization of rainwater.
Rainfall details for January 2026
The report indicated that January is characterized by rainfall exceeding the usual averages for this time of year. This active rainfall pattern is concentrated in:
- Large parts of the west and center of the kingdom.
- East of the Medina region.
- Hail region (excluding its southern parts).
- Northern Borders and Al-Jawf regions (except for the western parts of them).
The report classified the expected rainfall in these areas as ranging from heavy to very heavy, necessitating caution. In contrast, rainfall is expected to be around normal levels in Najran, southeast of Mecca, south of Riyadh, and the southern part of the Eastern Province.
February and March forecasts
Moving into February, climate models indicate relative stability, with rainfall chances around the normal average and ranging from light to moderate in Najran, southeast of Mecca, eastern Asir, southern Riyadh, and the Eastern Province. The remaining areas are expected to experience below-average rainfall.
In March, the chances of rainfall will return to around average (moderate to heavy) in specific areas including Najran, northwest of Mecca, south of Riyadh and the Eastern Province, as well as parts of Tabuk and Medina.
Temperatures above average
Regarding thermal indicators, the report revealed a climate phenomenon that deserves attention, as probabilistic forecasts indicate an increase in average surface temperatures above the normal average during the three months (January, February, March) across all regions of the Kingdom.
This rise is expected to reach its highest levels, with an increase of up to (1.0) degrees Celsius, specifically in:
- Central, southern, and eastern parts of the Eastern Province.
- East of Najran region.
- East and southeast of the Riyadh region.
This increase reflects the region's vulnerability to changing global climate patterns, underscoring the need to adapt to these changes in planning seasonal activities.
Those interested and specialists can view the full version of the report and detailed maps via the center’s official website by clicking here .
