Saudi Arabia's economy grew by 4.8%, according to IMF projections for 2025

Saudi Arabia's economy grew by 4.8%, according to IMF projections for 2025

29.12.2025
8 mins read
The Saudi economy grew by 4.8% in the third quarter. The IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast to 4%, driven by a surge in the non-oil sector and exceeding volunteer targets.

The Saudi economy continued its exceptional performance during the third quarter of this year, with official data showing GDP growth accelerating to 4.8% year-on-year, the highest growth rate recorded this year. This achievement reflects the success of the Kingdom's economic policies within the framework of Vision 2030, which aims to diversify income sources and reduce overall dependence on oil.

International confidence certificate from the IMF

In a clear indication of the Kingdom's robust financial position, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its outlook for the Saudi economy, raising its growth forecast to 4% for both 2025 and 2026. This revision represents an increase of 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, compared to the estimates from last July. Experts attribute this international optimism to the continued recovery of non-oil sectors and increased efficiency in oil production, which reinforces the Kingdom's position as one of the fastest-growing economies within the G20.

Recovery of the non-oil private sector

Growth was not limited to overall figures; it was also tangibly reflected in the non-oil private sector , which recorded significant positive momentum. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 58.8 points in November, driven by a notable increase in domestic and external demand and improved employment rates. This recovery confirms the effectiveness of the structural reforms that have enabled the private sector to lead the engine of economic growth.

Economic context and the impact of Vision 2030

Saudi Vision 2030 adopts a dynamic and flexible approach based on the continuous review of national plans and programs. In its current third phase, the Vision focuses on increasing the efficiency of capital spending to accelerate the completion of mega-projects and seize investment opportunities in promising sectors such as tourism, entertainment, and industry. These initiatives aim to create a diversified and sustainable economy capable of withstanding global economic fluctuations.

Expected impact: locally and regionally

This growth is expected to have a positive impact on several levels:

  • Locally: Increasing job opportunities for citizens, improving quality of life, and enhancing purchasing power, as the citizen is the central focus of the vision.
  • Regionally and internationally: This growth enhances the Kingdom’s attractiveness as a major destination for foreign direct investment in the Middle East, and underscores its pivotal role in stabilizing energy markets and the global economy.

Boom in the non-profit sector

In parallel with economic growth, the non-profit sector a radical transformation thanks to substantial government support. Its contribution to GDP rose to 1.3% in 2023, amounting to SAR 59 billion, compared to just 0.3% in 2018. Furthermore, the number of volunteers exceeded the Vision target of one million, reaching 1.7 million by 2025, reflecting growing community awareness and solidifying a culture of volunteerism.

In a related context, the number of employees in the non-profit sector jumped to 140,000 employees in 2025, a relative increase of more than 600% compared to 2017. The number of non-profit organizations also increased to more than 7,000 organizations, which enhances the sustainable development impact and supports social solidarity in the Kingdom.

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