The rapid estimates issued by the General Authority for Statistics showed positive expectations for the performance of the Saudi economy, as real GDP is expected to achieve remarkable growth of 4.5% during 2025 compared to 2024. This anticipated growth reflects the success of the economic policies followed and the economy’s ability to adapt and expand in various sectors.
Growth drivers: A balance between the oil and non-oil sectors
According to the data, this growth is primarily attributed to the strong performance of both oil and non-oil sectors. Oil activities are projected to grow by 5.6%, supported by stable global energy markets. In a move that underscores the success of economic diversification strategies, non-oil activities are expected to grow robustly by 4.9%, while government activities are projected to grow by 0.9%.
The non-oil sector is of paramount importance as the largest contributor to GDP growth, accounting for 2.7 percentage points of total growth, thus illustrating the structural transformation underway in the Saudi economy. In contrast, oil activities contributed 1.4 percentage points, demonstrating their continued significance as a key component of the national economy.
General context: The Kingdom's Vision 2030 as a roadmap
This outstanding economic performance comes within the context of implementing the comprehensive National Transformation Plan, “Vision 2030,” launched in 2016. The Vision aims to reduce the Kingdom’s dependence on oil as its primary source of income and diversify its economic base by developing promising sectors such as tourism, entertainment, technology, advanced industries, and logistics. The robust growth in the non-oil sector is a direct result of the major projects and massive investments injected into this ambitious vision, which are now clearly bearing fruit.
The importance of growth and its expected impact
Domestically, this economic growth is expected to positively impact citizens' lives by creating more job opportunities, particularly in emerging sectors, boosting purchasing power, and improving the quality of services. It also strengthens local investor confidence and encourages the expansion of their business activities.
Regionally, this performance reinforces Saudi Arabia’s position as a leading economic power in the Middle East and makes it an even more attractive destination for foreign direct investment. It also presents a successful model of economic transformation that neighboring countries seeking to diversify their economies can emulate.
Internationally, the sustained growth of the Saudi economy strengthens its role as an active and influential member of the G20 and in global economic stability. Furthermore, economic diversification helps reduce volatility in global energy markets, thus contributing to overall global economic stability.
Strong quarterly performance
On a quarterly basis, data showed real GDP growth of 4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of 2024. This growth was driven by a 10.4% increase in oil activities and a 4.1% increase in non-oil activities. Seasonally adjusted quarterly growth of 1.1% compared to the third quarter of 2025 indicates continued positive momentum in the economy.
