The National Center for Meteorology in Saudi Arabia has released its climate report for February, painting an exceptional weather picture for the coming month. The forecast indicates, God willing, significant climatic shifts, including the likelihood of above-average rainfall across wide areas, accompanied by a noticeable rise in average surface temperatures throughout the Kingdom, suggesting a relatively warm and humid month.
February weather forecast details
According to the center's numerical models, parts of the Madinah (central), Qassim (eastern and central), and Hail (eastern, central, and northern) regions, as well as the Northern Borders and Al-Jawf regions, are expected to experience rainfall exceeding the average for this time of year. The probability of this scenario is 55%, with the possibility of moderate to heavy rainfall at times. The rest of the Kingdom is expected to receive rainfall around its normal average. Regarding temperatures, forecasts indicate a 70% probability of an increase in average surface temperatures across all regions, with this increase potentially reaching 1.4 degrees Celsius in parts of the southern and southwestern Eastern Province, southeastern Riyadh, and eastern and central Jazan. Relatively strong surface winds are also expected, particularly in the southern, central, eastern, and northern parts of the Kingdom.
Climate context and the importance of forecasts
February typically marks a transitional period in Saudi Arabia, as winter weather gradually recedes in preparation for spring. However, current forecasts indicate a warmer and wetter than usual weather pattern. This is of paramount importance in a country heavily reliant on limited water resources. If the above-average rainfall materializes, it will positively contribute to replenishing groundwater reservoirs and dams, supporting the agricultural sector, and fostering vegetation growth—all of which aligns with the goals of major national initiatives such as the Saudi Green Initiative.
Expected effects and preventive measures
Despite the benefits of rainfall, it can also bring challenges. Heavy rains increase the risk of flash floods in valleys and low-lying areas and disrupt traffic in cities. Therefore, the National Center of Meteorology emphasized the importance of following daily weather reports and alerts, and adhering to the instructions of relevant authorities such as Civil Defense to ensure the safety of lives and property. These advanced forecasts are a vital tool for proactive planning at the individual, governmental, and private sector levels, allowing for better preparedness to deal with potential weather phenomena and mitigate their possible negative impacts.
