A recent opinion poll has revealed profound shifts in European public sentiment, with a significant number of citizens across the continent believing there is a real and growing risk of a direct military confrontation with Russia in the near future. This poll, published by the French magazine Le Grand Continent, highlights the anxiety gripping the European public amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and escalating geopolitical tensions.
Growing fears of open conflict
According to a survey conducted by Cluster 17 of 9,553 people in nine EU member states, 51% of respondents believe the likelihood of war between their country and Russia in the coming years is "high" or "very high." The sample included key countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
These figures reflect the direct impact of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, which has been ongoing since February 2022, and which has brought the specter of conventional war back to European soil for the first time since World War II, changing the security perceptions of the average European citizen.
Geography dictates the concerns: Poland is in the spotlight
The results showed a clear variation based on the geographical location of the countries; in Poland, which shares a direct border with both Russia (via Kaliningrad) and its ally Belarus, and has a long history of tension with Moscow, the level of concern rose significantly, with 77% of respondents seeing the risk of war as very high.
In contrast, southern European countries appeared less pessimistic, with 65% of Italians considering the risk low or nonexistent, reflecting their geographical distance from the direct lines of contact with Russian influence. Among the traditional powers of the Union, the level of concern reached 54% in France and 51% in Germany.
A crisis of confidence in national defense capabilities
Perhaps the most worrying finding for policymakers in Brussels is the lack of confidence in national military capabilities. More than two-thirds of respondents (69%) felt their countries were “completely incapable” or “rather incapable” of defending themselves on their own against any potential Russian aggression.
This result highlights Europe’s historical dependence on the security umbrella of NATO and the United States, and explains recent moves to increase defense spending in countries such as Germany (the tipping point strategy) and Poland.
The French exception and nuclear deterrence
France was a relative exception in this regard, being the only country whose citizens expressed cautious optimism, with 44% believing their country was capable of defending itself. This feeling is mainly attributed to France's possession of an independent nuclear deterrent and a professional army that is among the strongest on the continent, giving the French public a sense of security not found in countries like Belgium, Italy, and Portugal, where more than 85% of citizens expressed doubts about their armed forces' defense capabilities.
In another context, the survey showed that concerns are mainly focused on Russia, with an overwhelming majority (81%) ruling out any military conflict with China in the coming years, indicating that the Russian threat is currently the number one security concern for Europeans.
