Norwegian intelligence report raises concerns
The Norwegian Military Intelligence Service has released its annual threat assessment, highlighting growing concerns about Russia and China's efforts to strengthen their presence and influence in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard, located in the increasingly strategically important Arctic region. This report comes at a time of escalating global geopolitical competition, with the Arctic becoming a new arena for major powers.
Historical and legal context: The Svalbard Treaty
The sovereignty of the Svalbard archipelago is governed by the 1920 Treaty of Svalbard, which recognizes Norway's full sovereignty over the islands. However, the treaty grants its signatory states, including Russia and China, equal rights to engage in commercial and economic activities such as fishing, mining, and scientific research. This unique legal status has allowed Russia to maintain a permanent presence in the archipelago for decades, specifically in the Barentsburg coaling settlement, which is almost entirely populated by Russian citizens.
Russian ambitions in the Arctic
According to the Norwegian report, Moscow views Svalbard as a vital strategic location and seeks to maintain and expand its presence there. The report noted “indications that the Kremlin is trying to reduce the Barentsburg settlement’s dependence on Norwegian supply and transport infrastructure.” It also warned that regular visits by Russian ships to the settlement’s port could be a “deliberate step” in this direction. Russia considers its presence in Svalbard an integral part of its broader strategy to control the Northern Sea Route and secure its military and economic interests in the Arctic.
China: The rising pole power
On the other hand, the report predicted that Beijing would also work to solidify its presence in Svalbard as part of its ambition to become a “polar power.” Although China has no Arctic borders, it has declared itself a “sub-Arctic state” and has shown increasing interest in the region through infrastructure investments and scientific expeditions. The report explained that the Chinese presence has become more visible, with the number of Chinese research vessels in the Arctic Ocean increasing significantly in recent years, reflecting a long-term strategy to build scientific and economic influence in the region.
Strategic importance and potential impacts
The Arctic region is gaining immense importance due to climate change, which is causing ice to melt, opening new shipping routes (such as the Northern Sea Route) and providing access to vast natural resources of oil, gas, and minerals. Any attempt to alter the status quo in Svalbard could have serious repercussions for regional security in Northern Europe. This competition also poses a test for the unity of NATO, of which Norway is a founding member. The head of Norway’s intelligence service, Andreas Stensons, stated that “many of the foundations of Norwegian security are being challenged” and that “the world order as we know it is crumbling,” suggesting that Russia and China could exploit any Western divisions to expand their influence.
