The world stands on the precipice of a new era of nuclear uncertainty, with the expiration of the New START Treaty in February 2026, the last remaining strategic arms control agreement between the United States and Russia. The situation is further complicated by Moscow's decision to suspend its participation in the treaty in February 2023, which puts the last cornerstone of a fragile global security system at risk and raises serious concerns about the outbreak of an uncontrollable nuclear arms race.
Historical background: The legacy of the Cold War
To understand the significance of New START, one must return to the Cold War era, when the world lived under the constant threat of mutual nuclear annihilation. Severe crises, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, compelled the two superpowers to recognize the imperative of establishing mechanisms to control and limit their nuclear arsenals, preventing any miscalculation that could lead to catastrophe. From this conviction emerged a series of historic treaties, from the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963) and the SALT Treaties of the 1970s, culminating in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) of 1987 and the subsequent START Treaties, which together formed a framework for reducing tensions and building trust.
What is the New START treaty and what does it stipulate?
The New START Treaty was signed in 2010 by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev and entered into force in 2011. It is a cornerstone of global arms control efforts, imposing verifiable limits on the world's two largest nuclear arsenals. Its key provisions include:
- The number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads was set at 1,550 for each side.
- The number of strategic launch systems (intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and heavy bombers) is set at 700 deployed systems.
- Establishing a rigorous system of verification and monitoring, including reciprocal field inspections and regular data exchange, provides unparalleled transparency and prevents doubts and misjudgments.
Expected impact: A more dangerous world
The collapse of the New START treaty would not be merely a diplomatic event; it would have profound implications for international security. Without the constraints and verification mechanisms imposed by the treaty, the United States and Russia would enter a strategic vacuum for the first time in decades. Potential effects include:
- A new arms race: In the absence of any constraints, both countries may seek to greatly increase the size and quality of their nuclear arsenals to counter perceived threats, plunging the world into a dangerous spiral of military competition.
- Erosion of transparency and trust: The cessation of inspections and data exchanges will lead to a lack of visibility into the other party’s nuclear capabilities, increasing the likelihood of misunderstandings and escalation during crises.
- Global impact: The collapse of the treaty could encourage other countries to develop or expand their nuclear programs, arguing that the major powers themselves are no longer committed to arms control, thus weakening the entire global nuclear non-proliferation regime.
Ultimately, the uncertain fate of the New START treaty represents a historic turning point. The world not only faces the risk of a legal document expiring, but also the potential unraveling of a security architecture that took more than half a century of painstaking diplomacy to build in order to spare humanity the horrors of nuclear war.
