In a move reflecting escalating tensions in the Middle East, recent data reveals that Iran has doubled its crude oil loadings onto tankers in recent days. Bloomberg, citing data analytics firm Kpler, reported that Iranian oil exports from Kharg Island, the country's main export terminal, reached approximately 20.1 million barrels between February 15 and 20. This figure equates to more than 3 million barrels per day, triple the amount loaded during the same period in January, and significantly exceeds Tehran's usual daily export rate.
General context and historical background of the event
This marked escalation comes at a time when the United States is amassing its largest combat force in the Middle East since the 2003 Gulf War. This military buildup is fueling Tehran's fears of a potential US attack targeting its vital facilities, particularly its oil infrastructure. Historically, relations between Washington and Tehran have been marked by decades of tension, culminating in the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2018 and the reimposition of crippling economic sanctions aimed at reducing Iranian oil exports to zero. Despite these sanctions, Iran has continued to export its oil, relying on a complex network of tankers and customers, especially in Asia.
The importance of the event and its expected impact
This move is a strong indication of Tehran's preparations for a military confrontation. Domestically, the oil sector is the lifeblood of the Iranian economy, which is suffering greatly under the weight of sanctions. By expediting the shipment of as much oil as possible, Iran seeks to secure vital revenues and shift its oil assets from fixed storage facilities on its territory, which could be easy targets, to tankers moving at sea, making them more difficult to track and target.
Regionally, these moves are raising concerns among neighboring countries, as any military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz—the waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes—would threaten the stability of the entire region and global energy supply chains. Internationally, any significant disruption to Iranian oil exports or threat to freedom of navigation in the Strait would inevitably lead to a sharp rise in global oil prices, negatively impacting major economies and consumers worldwide. It is worth noting that this pattern of accelerating oil shipments is not new; similar behavior was observed in 2024 during a period of heightened tensions, confirming that it is a recurring Iranian strategy for hedging against geopolitical risks.
