A recent Reuters poll revealed that gold prices are poised to continue their strong upward trajectory, reaching a new record high by 2026. According to the survey of 30 analysts and precious metals market experts, the average forecast for the price of an ounce of gold has been raised to $4,746.50 in 2026, a significant increase from the previous forecast of $4,275 in October 2025. This optimistic consensus represents the highest annual forecast in Reuters polls since 2012, indicating growing confidence in the future of the precious metal as a safe haven and a key investment asset.
Factors driving the rise of gold
Analysts believe a confluence of factors will support this upward trend. Foremost among these is the continued geopolitical uncertainty in various parts of the world, which is driving both investors and central banks to hedge against the effects of gold. Furthermore, strong purchases by global central banks are expected to continue as they seek to diversify their reserves and reduce their reliance on the US dollar—a phenomenon known as “de-dollarization.” Concerns about the high level of US debt and doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) also contribute to gold's appeal as an asset not tied to the policies of any single country.
Historical context and the role of gold as a safe haven
Throughout history, gold has proven its value as an asset, particularly during times of economic crisis, war, and high inflation. Since the abandonment of the gold standard in the early 1970s, the precious metal has become a key hedge against the volatility of paper currencies. Recent years have reinforced this role, as the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by international conflicts and waves of global inflation, have led to increased demand for gold from individuals and institutions, driving it to successive record highs.
Silver Outlook: Between Opportunities and Volatility
Conversely, while the outlook for silver prices is also positive, it carries greater risks. Analysts predict that the average price of an ounce of silver will reach $79.50 in 2026, a significant increase from previous forecasts of $50. However, experts caution that silver prices will remain highly volatile, with the potential for sharp declines.
This volatility stems from silver's dual nature; it is both a precious metal and an industrial metal. Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer Bank, noted that industrial demand for silver is beginning to show signs of weakening. For example, solar panel manufacturers are seeking cheaper alternatives due to the high cost of silver, and demand for silver jewelry is declining as prices rise. This dependence on the economic cycle and industrial demand makes silver more susceptible to price corrections compared to gold, which is more reliant on investment demand and foreign exchange reserves.
