Gold prices began 2026 with an exceptional performance and a surge, with the price of the precious metal surpassing $4,600 per ounce for the first time in history. This reflects growing anxiety in global markets and the continued search for safe havens. These price jumps come amid optimistic forecasts from major brokerage firms and global banks that the price will reach $5,000 this year.
Rocket rise and unprecedented figures
In less than two weeks since the start of the new year, the precious metal has surged by more than 6% in just 13 days, continuing its record-breaking 64% gain from last year. By 9:50 GMT, gold was trading at $4,628 per ounce, marking a daily increase of approximately 1%.
This buying momentum not only reflects momentary speculation, but also points to a structural shift in investors’ view of traditional assets, as gold has historically been seen as the true store of value in times of monetary turmoil and the erosion of the purchasing power of paper currencies.
A safe haven amidst geopolitical storms
A complex interplay of geopolitical and economic factors is driving up gold prices, most notably concerns about the independence of US monetary policy. Markets have been affected by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks about facing pressure from President Donald Trump's administration, including threats of criminal charges over the dispute regarding interest rates.
In addition, the international arena is experiencing political uncertainty, from developments in Venezuela and the arrest of Nicolás Maduro to tensions surrounding Greenland and unrest in Iran. These events collectively enhance gold's appeal as an asset uncorrelated with counterparty risk, making it the preferred choice for hedging against political risks.
Central banks are leading the buying frenzy
Demand isn't limited to individuals or investment funds; central banks also play a pivotal role in supporting prices. Data indicates that the People's Bank of China continued its gold-buying program for the fourteenth consecutive month, raising its holdings to record levels.
In a related context, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw massive cash inflows of $89 billion, the highest level ever recorded according to the World Gold Council, confirming the return of institutional confidence in the yellow metal.
Global banks' forecasts: Where is gold headed?
Based on this data, major financial institutions such as HSBC, Bank of America, and ANZ have updated their forecasts for 2026, predicting that gold will break through the $5,000 per ounce level, especially in the first half of the year, driven by rising public debt and policy instability.
However, caution remains, as some analyses predict the possibility of a gradual price correction in the second half of 2026, coinciding with the potential end of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle, which could reshape the investment landscape in precious metals.
