European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has raised growing concerns within the European Union about over-reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported from the United States, warning that the continent could simply replace one dependence with another. His remarks come in the wake of geopolitical tensions and threats from former US President Donald Trump, which have once again highlighted the vulnerability of European energy security to the political whims of its allies.
Background to the major transformation of the European energy market
To understand the current context, we must go back to before 2022, when Russia was the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe via a vast network of pipelines. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked a strategic turning point, as Moscow used energy supplies as a political weapon, prompting the European Union to urgently seek alternatives to reduce its dependence on the Kremlin. In the midst of this crisis, the United States emerged as a vital partner, significantly increasing its exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe, becoming the leading supplier and playing a pivotal role in helping the continent weather a harsh winter and replenish its reserves.
From thanking the ally to fearing dependence
Despite the crucial role of the United States, concerns are becoming increasingly apparent. “As the EU reduces its imports from Russia, there are growing fears, which I also share, of replacing one dependency with another,” Jorgensen told reporters in Brussels. These concerns are fueled by the American political landscape, particularly the potential return of Trump to the White House, given his “America First” approach and his skepticism toward traditional alliances. Past threats of tariffs or linking security assistance to trade issues make relying on a single ally, however powerful, a strategic risk that cannot be ignored.
Brussels' strategy to diversify sources
To address this challenge, Jørgensen, who previously served as Denmark's energy minister, affirmed that Brussels is "exploring alternatives" to bolster its energy security. He indicated that discussions are underway with potential and reliable partners such as Canada, Qatar (one of the world's largest producers of liquefied natural gas), and North African countries that could increase their exports via existing pipelines. He added, "In the coming months, I will be holding meetings with many countries involved in this matter, as well as making some visits to these countries with the aim of improving relations." The objective is not to sever trade ties with the United States, but rather to build a diversified portfolio of suppliers that reduces risk and gives Europe greater resilience to any future shocks.
Expected economic and geopolitical impacts
This European drive toward diversification carries significant implications at both the regional and international levels. At the European level, this path strengthens the continent's "strategic autonomy," a long-sought goal of the Union. Internationally, it could lead to increased competition in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. This move may also provoke Washington, especially given previous agreements in which the European Union pledged to purchase substantial quantities of American energy. Europe's pursuit of energy security sends a clear message that it has learned from past experiences and that energy security is no longer merely an economic issue, but a fundamental pillar of national security and political sovereignty.
