Worrying signs of renewed conflict in northern Ethiopia
In a deeply worrying development, fierce clashes have erupted in recent days between the Ethiopian federal army and forces from the Tigray region, marking the first such military confrontation since the signing of the peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2012. Diplomatic and security sources confirmed to AFP that the fighting is concentrated in the Tselem area of western Tigray, a disputed territory also claimed by forces from the neighboring Amhara region. As a result of this escalation, all commercial flights to the region have been suspended, isolating it and deepening the uncertainty.
Background of the conflict: The roots of the tension and the causes of the war
The roots of this conflict lie in the political tensions that escalated after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which had dominated Ethiopian politics for decades, felt marginalized. Tensions reached a boiling point in November 2020 when a full-scale war broke out between the federal government and the TPLF. The war lasted two years and drew in regional actors, most notably Eritrean forces and militias from the Amhara region who supported the federal army. This war resulted in widespread devastation and a catastrophic humanitarian crisis, with the African Union estimating that at least 600,000 people were killed, while experts believe the actual number could be much higher.
The fragile Pretoria Agreement and the challenges of implementation
The peace agreement reached in November 2022 ended two years of bloody fighting. Key provisions included the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, the restoration of federal authority over the region, and guarantees of unimpeded humanitarian access. While the agreement largely halted the fighting, its implementation has faced significant challenges, particularly regarding disputes over contested territories such as western Tigray, the complete withdrawal of Eritrean and Amhara forces, and achieving transitional justice for victims. The current clashes demonstrate that these fundamental issues remain unresolved and that peace is still fragile.
The importance and potential effects of the new escalation
A renewed outbreak of fighting, even on a limited scale, risks completely collapsing the peace agreement and plunging Ethiopia back into a cycle of violence. Domestically, this escalation threatens to worsen the humanitarian situation in a region still reeling from the effects of the previous war. Regionally, it could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, which is already grappling with numerous security and political challenges. The international community is watching developments with concern, fearing that the collapse of the peace process could have catastrophic repercussions beyond Ethiopia's borders, thus necessitating urgent diplomatic action to contain the situation and prevent it from spiraling into a new, full-blown war.
