Global metals markets witnessed dramatic shifts towards the end of the year, with copper prices soaring to new record highs, nearing the $12,000 per ton mark. This strong surge comes at the close of a year marked by sharp trade volatility, growing concerns about global supply shortages, and widespread optimism about future demand growth.
Record performance and unprecedented annual gains
The red metal rose 0.7% to $11,966.50 per ton in morning trading in Shanghai, pulling other industrial metals such as aluminum, zinc, and nickel higher as well. With only a few days of trading remaining this year on the London Metal Exchange, copper is on track for its biggest annual gain since 2009, exceeding many previous forecasts.
Drivers of the rise: Between supply shortages and the artificial intelligence revolution
This price surge stems from a combination of factors. On the one hand, the massive influx of copper into the United States—a preemptive move to avoid potential tariffs—has put significant pressure on supplies in the rest of the global market. On the other hand, sudden and unscheduled shutdowns at several major mines worldwide have exacerbated the supply deficit, driving prices up by more than 36% since the beginning of the year.
Moreover, the technological factor plays a pivotal role in this equation; the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers has created a new and unexpected demand for copper, in addition to the traditional demand coming from the construction and industrial sectors.
Copper as a strategic element in the energy transition
This surge cannot be viewed in isolation from the global context of the clean energy transition. Copper is a fundamental and essential component in renewable energy technologies, from solar panels and wind turbines to electric vehicles and their charging networks. As countries race to achieve carbon neutrality targets, securing copper supplies has become a matter of economic national security for many industrialized nations, reinforcing expectations of continued strong demand for years to come.
Predictions from major banks: Goldman Sachs and Citigroup
Major financial institutions have reinforced their positive outlook on the metal. A recent report from Citigroup indicated that prices could reach $13,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026, driven by fierce competition for resources. Similarly, a research note from Goldman Sachs last week ranked copper as the "preferred metal" for investment in the coming year, reflecting financial institutions' confidence in the strength of the copper market's fundamentals and its ability to continue rising despite global economic challenges.
